Bitcoin rebounded from $62,500, yet the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio falling below 1 indicates an 'excess loss-realization regime', historically preceding 6+ months of weakness. Large holders are actively reducing exposure, offloading ~$5.8 billion in BTC.
🧠 Institutional Insight
🐋 Whales
Large holders (1k-10k BTC) shed 90k BTC (~$5.8B) in 12 days, signaling distribution.
🎯 Impact
Directly bearish for BTC/USD, risking retests of $62,525 and $60,000. Broader crypto market likely to follow, limiting altcoin upside potential.
⏳ Context
Defensive sentiment and limited capital inflows in crypto may persist until broader market liquidity conditions show constructive improvement.
⚖️ Market Scenarios
⚡ AI Market Deja Vu
Past Event: Prior instances of Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA) dropping below 1.
Reaction: Bitcoin and crypto markets experienced prolonged weakness, often lasting six months or more, accompanied by constrained capital inflows.
Reaction: Bitcoin and crypto markets experienced prolonged weakness, often lasting six months or more, accompanied by constrained capital inflows.
🟢 Bulls Say
Immediate downside momentum is decelerating; a decisive break above $67,394 would invalidate the triangle breakdown, signaling a temporary bullish recovery.
🔴 Bears Say
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio below 1 suggests multi-month weakness, coupled with significant whale distribution, heightening risks of retesting $62,525 and $60,000.
