Trump's SOTU bypassed crypto entirely despite family ties, signaling zero legislative momentum. Unresolved tariff chaos and persistent inflation cement a higher-for-longer rate environment, dampening risk assets.
🧠 Institutional Insight
🐋 Whales
De-risking, maintaining hedges against persistent inflation and policy uncertainty, favoring less volatile assets.
🎯 Impact
Negative for risk assets, especially crypto and high-growth equities, due to persistent higher rates and tariff-driven uncertainty. Yields remain elevated. AI sector may see selective tailwinds.
⏳ Context
This event reinforces the 'higher-for-longer' interest rate regime amidst ongoing global trade uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures.
⚖️ Market Scenarios
⚡ AI Market Deja Vu
Past Event: Trump's prior trade wars (2018-2019) or Nixon's 1971 tariff surcharge.
Reaction: Increased equity volatility, flight to safe-haven assets (USTs, Gold), supply chain disruption, and commodity price instability.
Reaction: Increased equity volatility, flight to safe-haven assets (USTs, Gold), supply chain disruption, and commodity price instability.
🟢 Bulls Say
AI sector tailwinds and strong domestic economic fundamentals could eventually absorb rate pressure, leading to selective growth.
🔴 Bears Say
Sticky inflation, sustained high rates, and trade policy uncertainty will continue to depress valuations for risk assets, especially crypto.
