Trump's SOTU claim of plummeting prices is contradicted by a YouGov-MarketWatch poll showing most Americans feel affordability hasn't improved. This highlights a disconnect between political rhetoric and public perception on inflation's impact.
🧠 Institutional Insight
🐋 Whales
Hedging against political rhetoric, scrutinizing real CPI data for policy pivots.
🎯 Impact
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⏳ Context
This narrative clash underscores the persistent challenge of 'felt inflation' versus 'measured inflation' within a high-interest rate, post-pandemic economic cycle.
⚖️ Market Scenarios
⚡ AI Market Deja Vu
Past Event: 1970s stagflation era, where public perception of inflation persisted despite official attempts to quell it.
Reaction: Equities struggled, real assets (commodities, real estate) performed, bonds underperformed due to inflation premium demands.
Reaction: Equities struggled, real assets (commodities, real estate) performed, bonds underperformed due to inflation premium demands.
🟢 Bulls Say
Official CPI metrics show disinflationary trends, implying Fed cuts are still on the table, supporting risk assets regardless of public sentiment.
🔴 Bears Say
Persistent public affordability concerns signal weaker consumer spending ahead, potentially leading to recessionary pressures despite official data.
