President Trump's unwavering stance on tariffs, highlighted during his SOTU, signals continued trade friction. This commitment has significant, often upward, implications for the U.S. dollar.
🧠 Institutional Insight
🐋 Whales
Whales likely hedging global equity exposure, increasing USD long positions; shorting EM.
🎯 Impact
USD: Bullish. EM: Bearish. Global Equities: Negative for multinationals, positive for domestic. Commodities: Mixed, generally bearish due to global slowdown fears.
⏳ Context
This event reinforces the ongoing theme of trade protectionism and de-globalization, a defining characteristic of the current macro regime.
⚖️ Market Scenarios
⚡ AI Market Deja Vu
Past Event: US-China trade war 2018-2019
Reaction: USD strengthened, EM currencies weakened, global equities faced volatility with specific sector pressure.
Reaction: USD strengthened, EM currencies weakened, global equities faced volatility with specific sector pressure.
🟢 Bulls Say
Continued tariffs support US manufacturing, strengthen the dollar as capital flows to a resilient US economy, and reduce the trade deficit.
🔴 Bears Say
Persistent tariffs risk retaliatory measures, disrupt global supply chains, increase consumer costs, and harm global growth, eventually hurting profits.
